18 CALF News • April | May 2022 • over year of about 2.5 percent.What’s more, CattleFax predicts exports will be up 5 percent for the year, mostly because of demand in the Asian market. That puts further pressure on alreadytightening wholesale and retail supplies. That will play out as about a 2-pound drop in per-capita supplies. Keep in mind that percapita supplies don’t equate to demand. “Just an old rule of thumb, all things being consistent as far as demand and leverage, it would suggest the market should be substantially higher,” he said. “The old rule of thumb,” he added, “is a 1-pound change [in per-capita supplies] is worth $10 per hundredweight from a live cattle standpoint.” Price Outlook Given that, here’s how CattleFax forecast cattle prices as of early February: “Our suggestion for this year is basically a $140 per hundredweight fed market with the cutout at $280,” Good said. Should the cutout slide below that, it still leaves the packer with plenty of margin but pushes the average fed cattle price higher. “From a seasonal standpoint this year, we would lay out the fed market this way,” he said. “We’ve been in the mid to upper $130s starting the year. We feel like we’ve got potential to go to the mid to upper $140s for the spring high.” That may break 10 percent plus as the summer doldrums take hold.“That being the case, you would have to talk back somewhere into the mid if not lower $130s for summer low risk. And then your absolute high at the end of the year, somewhere between $150 and $155.” Good said this seasonal pattern should hold true over the next couple years.“Last year, the peak was at the end of the year. This year and in the next two at least, we should have a fall high looking at the fed market, which does influence your seasonality of feeders and calves.” The yearling market started in the upper $150s and should trend higher seasonally through spring into August, he predicted. “September typically is your peak. But in these types of years, prices stay that stout if not get a little stouter as you go into late year, supported by the higher trend in the fed market,” he added. So, with a forecast of a $172 average for feeder cattle, the low in the market has already been set. “By the time you get out to August on, you’ve got a feeder market that should be at $180 or better, which obviously will be very supportive to the calf market.” In early February, the calf market for under 550-weight calves was close to $190. “We should be higher into the spring for green grass fever. Then typically, the track back down into the fall is not as severe in these types of years. If you’ve got a yearling market at $180 or better going through the fall, you should have very good support in the calf market at $200 as we go through the second half of the year, a level that should be very supportive to profitability for our industry.” Then there’s the cow market, which started the year trading at the highest levels since 2016. For the first part of the year, CattleFax thinks the cow market will move from $66 to $72 per hundredweight. “As a reminder, the cow market bottomed back in 2018. All other classes of cattle bottomed in 2020. Grinds, hamburger demand is stouting up, and it’s lifted the cow market in an upward trend earlier than the other classes,” Good said. “That all is very supportive for a bred cow market. Obviously, you’ve got to have the feed in a lot of areas that are desperate today. But the underlying values for fed cattle, yearling cattle and calves will be very supportive to a bred cow market that should move higher over time.”  UNCERTAINTY Continued from page 17 Each mL contains 300 mg of oxytetracycline base (equivalent to 323.5 mg of oxytetracycline dihydrate). For Use in Beef Cattle, Non-lactating Dairy Cattle, Calves, Including pre-ruminating (veal) calves BRIEF SUMMARY (For full Prescribing Information, see package insert.) INDICATIONS: NOROMYCIN 300 LA is intended for use in treatment for the following diseases when due to oxytetracycline-susceptible organisms: Beef cattle, non-lactating dairy cattle, calves, including pre-ruminating (veal) calves: NOROMYCIN 300 LA is indicated in the treatment of pneumonia and shipping fever complex associated with Pasteurella spp., and Histophilus spp. NOROMYCIN 300 LA is indicated for the treatment of infectious bovine keratoconjunctivitis (pink eye) caused by Moraxella bovis, foot-rot and diphtheria caused by Fusobacterium necrophorum; bacterial enteritis (scours) caused by Escherichia coli; wooden tongue caused by Actinobacillus lignieresii; leptospirosis caused by Leptospira pomona; and wound infections and acute metritis caused by strains of staphylococcal and streptococcal organisms sensitive to oxytetracycline. Swine: NOROMYCIN 300 LA is indicated in the treatment of bacterial enteritis (scours, colibacillosis) caused by Escherichia coli; pneumonia caused by Pasteurella multocida; and leptospirosis caused by Leptospira pomona. In sows NOROMYCIN 300 LA is indicated as an aid in control of infectious enteritis (baby pig scours, colibacillosis) in suckling pigs caused by Escherichia coli. PRECAUTIONS: Exceeding the highest recommended level of drug per pound of bodyweight per day, administering more than the recommended number of treatments, and/or exceeding 10 mL intramuscularly or subcutaneously per injection site in adult beef cattle and non-lactating dairy cattle and 5 mL intramuscularly per injection site in adult swine, may result in antibiotic residues beyond the withdrawal time. Consult with your veterinarian prior to administering this product in order to determine the proper treatment required in the event of an adverse reaction. At the first sign of any adverse reaction, discontinue use of the product and seek the advice of your veterinarian. Some of the reactions may be attributable either to anaphylaxis (an allergic reaction) or to cardiovascular collapse of unknown cause. Shortly after injection treated animals may have transient hemoglobinuria resulting in darkened urine. As with all antibiotic preparations, use of this drug may result in overgrowth of non-susceptible organisms, including fungi. The absence of a favorable response following treatment, or the development of new signs or symptoms may suggest an overgrowth of non-susceptible organisms. If superinfections occur, the use of this product should be discontinued and appropriate specific therapy should be instituted. Since bacteriostatic drugs may interfere with the bactericidal action of penicillin, it is advisable to avoid giving NOROMYCIN 300 LA in conjunction with penicillin. WARNINGS: Warnings: Discontinue treatment at least 28 days prior to slaughter of cattle and swine. Not for use in lactating dairy animals. Rapid intravenous administration may result in animal collapse. Oxytetracycline should be administered intravenously slowly over a period of at least 5 minutes. CAUTION: Intramuscular or subcutaneous injection may result in local tissue reactions which persists beyond the slaughter withdrawal period. This may result in trim loss of edible tissue at slaughter. Intramuscular injection in the rump area may cause mild temporary lameness associated with swelling at the injection site. Subcutaneous injection in the neck area may cause swelling at the injection site. ADVERSE REACTIONS: Reports of adverse reactions associated with oxytetracycline administration include injection site swelling, restlessness, ataxia, trembling, swelling of eyelids, ears, muzzle, anus and vulva (or scrotum and sheath in males), respiratory abnormalities (labored breathing), frothing at the mouth, collapse and possibly death. Some of these reactions may be attributed either to anaphylaxis (an allergic reaction) or to cardiovascular collapse of unknown cause. To report a suspected adverse reaction call 1-866-591-5777. Livestock Drug - Not for Human Use. Restricted Drug(s) California. Use Only as Directed. Manufactured by: Norbrook, Inc. Lenexa, KS 66219 MADE IN THE UK Rev: August 2021 Version: I08 (oxytetracycline injection) ANTIBIOTIC Noromycin® 300 LA Approved by FDA under NADA # 141-143 Randy Blach sees strong prices continuing.