CALF_News_August_September_2019

11 CALF News • August | September 2019 • www.calfnews.net Dave Anderson is a Texas A&M AgriLife Extension economist. Anderson notes that since the market has been rewarding heavier calves,“if you have ample grass supplies, good weather and good health, then it might be a good year to put some more weight on. But I would really think about hay costs, grass supplies and paying attention to feed costs.” Keeling encourages producers and feeders to use discipline in mar- keting.“Don’t lose site of the overall goal – profitability. There are large amounts of risk,” he says. “To lock in or protect a good price, simple marketing strategies may work best. If there’s a pricing opportunity, consider using put options to cover cattle if the market drops. If and when the market rallies, you may want to roll them up or use futures to lock in better prices.” Pricing opportunities should come this fall, says Jim Sauter, an independent live cattle and feeder cattle trader on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange for more than three decades. He measures price cycles and sees price rebounds this fall. “For this year, I was looking for the top in late winter/early spring followed by a hard break,” Sauter says.“I believe that bottom was achieved in June based off another cycle. This month [ July] will be the midpoint of the cycle, and the top is likely coming in November. Once we cross that midpoint the market should pick up steam on the rally.” Of course, there are many breed and value-added calf programs and alliances that present opportunities to contract calves for a possible premium. High- quality cattle will likely attract a better price. For cow-calf operators, Anderson reminds producers of pricing opportuni- ties for culled cows.“In the cow market, we might get some price help as dairy cow slaughter slows down,” he says.“But the big decline in cow prices last fall should get us to think about a couple things, one of which is to think about culling earlier before the fall rush of cows. “Think carefully about using a lot of expensive hay on cows. It might make sense to do something different.” There is much more advice on market- ing opportunities from local, regional and national commodity analysts, along with Extension market analysts. With tight profit margins and no guarantee of hefty prices over the horizon, a phone call or two may be appropriate. 