CALF_News_August_September_2019

8 CALF News • August | September 2019 • www.calfnews.net T here’s not much exciting about marketing cattle these days. On July 15, August live cattle futures prices were within a few dollars per hundredweight from what they were a year ago, even though there has been much volatility in between. The Panhan- dle cash market was $110 if you were lucky. Cattle-on-feed had a projected loss of $5-$15 per hundredweight. Despite continued high cattle numbers and the potential for higher feed costs, strong demand is helping keep early 2020 cattle prices at a premium to summer markets. There’s never any guarantee on cattle prices. And several cattle economists and market analysts see more price volatility this fall and winter. They say the still- large cattle supply, a questionable corn crop, trade with China and cattle quality are among the big factors that impact prices. Their projections on fed cattle, feeder cattle and corn markets take all those into consideration. Fed markets December live cattle futures opened July 15 at about $114/ cwt., the highest price since mid- May. In mid-April, December prices tumbled from $124 to $114 by the first week of May. February 2020 live cattle took a similar path and opened July 15 at about $118. April 2020 futures opened July 15 at about $120, after also seeing a sharp drop from mid-April to mid-May. Marc Nemenoff, analyst and trader for Price Futures Group in Chicago, sees a Which Way Will Prices Go? THE OF THE ART DEAL Cattle Marketing By Larry Stalcup Contributing Editor Marc Nemenoff is an analyst for Price Futures Group. LEFT: High-quality cattle, such as high- yielding Angus, might see less basis pressure when bids come from packers. slow increase in fed cattle prices.“For the fall, I expect live cattle prices to remain steady in the $106-$112 area, slowly trending upward,” he says.“For the very near term, I suspect prices will see a bit of a decline as more expensive feed costs filter through the market, and market- ings increase with lower weights. “This winter, I expect prices to be well above the near term, possibly in the $116-$122 area. I’m basing that mostly on seasonality and technical indicators.” David Anderson, Texas A&MAgri- Life professor and Extension econo- mist, sees strength in continued strong demand, but still-large cattle numbers could derail higher prices. “I’m in the $110-$116 range for the fourth quarter,” he tells CALF News. “I’ve been there for a long time and the futures have come down to my range. I think beef demand – domestic and export – remains pretty good. My prices reflect that continuing. However, larger beef production could keep some supply pressure on the market that offsets good demand.” Tyler Keeling, analyst for Amarillo Brokerage Co., sees prices trending similar to last fall.“I don't like to make projections, but since we have an ample