CALF_News_August_September_2019

9 CALF News • August | September 2019 • www.calfnews.net Corporate Office n Winchester, VA n 540-877-9632 n valleyproteins.com We offer high-energy fats and quality protein meals: n Bleachable Fancy Tallow n Meat and Bone Meal n Animal Vegetable Blends n Blood Meal n Recycled Cooking Oil We’ve added locations in the West to bring our services closer to you. Amarillo, TX San Angelo, TX Bernalillo, NM Veribest, TX supply of cattle and a good demand, I see fed cattle prices similar to last year’s numbers,” he says. He sees feed prices calling the shots for all cattle prices.“Corn will be a major player for a year, or at least until we are confident we have ample carryout. It will affect how long we feed. It will affect north and south feeding abilities because of the basis. “We can have some pops in the market, but profitability will be more difficult. Costs of gain (COG) will be higher into the fourth quarter. COG have already begun to rise in July, this will become more and more evident as we move further in the fall.” Feeder cattle On July 15, all feeder cattle futures contracts from August 2019 to May 2020 were in the $140- $142/cwt. range. Local cash prices will be highly impacted by basis. Anderson pegs cash feeders in the upper $130s this fall. “I’m thinking more about a Texas price, so that’s usually a little lower than Oklahoma City or Kansas-Nebraska prices,” he says.“I think the demand for heavy feeders should hold those prices relatively higher than calf prices this fall, and that’s largely due to corn prices. “High feed costs create an incentive to keep cattle on grass longer. Good weather for wheat pasture development will be more critical due to higher corn prices. The opportunity for good stocker cattle demand will be very important. So, compared to last year, feed costs and more cattle will likely pressure feeder prices more this fall.” Keeling sees quality as a key factor for feeder cattle prices.“The fall feeder run into the third and fourth quarters will be highly dependent on the quality of cattle you’re dealing with,” he says.“Cattle with low risk and a big frame will likely move at a lot better price. Animals with high risk and a poor frame will have a more variable basis. “Basis on feeders and corn could be our largest amount of risk. Overall, feeder prices can be anywhere, based on where corn goes.” Nemenoff sees a struggle for better feeder cattle markets in the third quarter. “Feeder cattle prices likely will see lim- ited upside as the market deals with high corn prices,” he contends.“That being said, I feel prices will gradually improve with an upside of $150-$155 as we enter the fourth quarter. This winter, prices should continue higher, topping out in late December or early January.” Tyler Keeling is an analyst for Amarillo Brokerage Company. Continued on page 10 