CALF_News_December_2018_January_2019

30 CALF News • December 2018 | January 2019 • www.calfnews.net P rogress is being made in increasing U.S. trade pacts with major buyers of American beef. But China remains a challenging trade obstacle for beef and other ag products hurt by tariff wars between the Trump administration and the Chinese. These and other issues were discussed heavily at the Texas Cattle Feeders Association (TCFA) annual convention in San Antonio in November. The Alamo City is celebrating its 300 th birthday, and outgoing TCFA Chairman Jason Peeler wel- comed close to 400 people to his hometown’s tricentennial. Peeler pointed out some powerful victories for the beef industry the past year, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA), TCFA and other cattle organizations’ help in obtaining a reduction in estate taxes that benefit farm- ers and ranchers. “We engaged with the Trump administration and Congress to help establish the new USMCA [United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement] to replace NAFTA,” he said.“Gains we had hoped for in getting the U.S. in China have stalled, but NCBA remains right there at every level [to open trade barriers].” Kevin Kester, NCBA president from Paso Robles, Calif., added that despite the stalled China deal, U.S. exports are “going to break all records” in terms of beef value, with about $8 billion in export sales this year. That includes $2 billion in sales to Japan and $1.5 billion to South Korea. “The USMCA will keep Canada and Mexico as valuable markets for U.S. beef,” Kester said.“We just have to keep our fingers crossed that President Trump and the Chinese presi- dent can make a deal.” However, the Chinese deal won’t be overnight, contended Darci Vetter, former U.S. deputy trade representative now with Edelman Public Affairs.“The Trans-Pacific Partnership went on without the U.S.,” she said.“What that means is that we can’t just go back to before the trade war ended. We lost our market share. Our fiercest competitors [like in Latin America] upped their game. Others are looking to expand into China.” Due to China’s 25-percent tariff on U.S. soybeans, Brazil is expanding its soybean acres.“U.S. competitors must fill the ‘trust gap’ [caused by the Trump-China trade war],”Vetter said. She noted that the Trump administration has done a good job in pointing out long-time trade problems with China. And there is sympathy among ag producers for the administra- tion’s regulatory agenda to roll back excessive regulations on production. Vetter said she believes China wants to be part of the World Trade Organization, but it must play by WTO rules. She pointed out that the USMCA might be drug out by the new Congress if the new Democratic House majority believes labor guidelines in Mexico are out of line. Peter Zeihan, a geopolitical strategist, said Argentina, not Brazil, holds the best opportunity for future South American agricultural trade expansion. There remains only one major highway that leads from major Brazilian ag production areas to coastal trading areas, he said. Argentina appears to be a more stable country politically and is also growing in ag production, Zeihan said. He added that New Zealand will become a larger supplier of beef to Asia and other regions and is already the fifth-largest beef exporter. Zeihan said the world could see mild inflation over the next decade. However,“if we see a global economic breakdown, foreign money will come to the U.S.,” he explained, noting that Russia and its many problems will likely suffer. Cattle Feeders Talk Trade, Farm Bill, Retail Sales TOP LEFT: Jason Peeler, outing TCFA chairman, welcomed cattle feeders to his hometown of San Antonio, celebrating its 300th birthday. TOP RIGHT: NCBA President Kevin Kester said that even without China, U.S. beef exports will “break all records” with $8 billion in beef value sold abroad. ABOVE LEFT: Molly McAdams, part of a Texas ranch family and longtime specialist in measuring consumer attitudes about beef, said some consumer remain unaware of beef’s protein value. ABOVE RIGHT: Mike Jarzombek, HEB groceries vice president of meat and seafood: “Consumers are either ‘yes’ or ‘no’ on the use of antibiotics.” TEXAS CATTLE FEEDERS ANNUAL CONVENT ION By Larry Stalcup Contributing Editor