CALF_News_June_July_2021

34 CALF News • June | July 2021 • www.calfnews.net By Larry Stalcup Contributing Editor ou’re either in a drought or fixin’ to be.” Southwest- ern producers know that expression by heart. For the start of 2021, that depiction fits much of the country. And one form of climate change or another is to blame, say climatologists in search of ways to better prepare ranchers, farmers, forest managers and others for potential dry weather patterns. In mid-May, drought or pre-drought stress conditions were apparent in most western states, the upper Great Plains and most of the Great Lakes states. That’s according to the Vegeta- tion Drought Response Index, a weekly analysis of vegetation stress across the contiguous United States published by the University of Nebraska. How long the dry period will last is questionable, at best. If it’s too severe, drought can force large herd liquida- tion and crop failure, as was seen in the previous decade. This spring, the National Integrated Drought Informa- tion System and other climate agen- cies conducted a webinar series, which reviewed research on the various causes of drought and how to be ready for more harsh conditions. In discussing the series, “Ecologi- cal Drought: Planning for Resilience,” speaker Shelley Crausbay of Conserva- tion Science Partners warned, “Droughts are becoming stronger and longer, and they’re set to get much stronger and severe. As climate is changing, hydrologi- cal drivers are changing.” For ranchers, planning for a drought can involve better pasture management and more precise stocking rates. But gauging weather based on an El Niño or La Niña isn't enough, based on a paper co-authored by Crausbay, “Unfa- miliar Territory, Emergency Themes for Ecological Drought Research and Management.” In the webinar, she highlighted portions of her research. She noted that El Niño and La Niña, caused by sea-surface temperatures in major oceanic basins, typically ignite meteorological drought processes, which can trigger a drought through a deficit in precipitation. “Now, drought is entering unfamil- iar territory,” she said. “Droughts are increasingly influenced by combina- tions of anthropogenic climate change, increasing human water use and expand- ing land-use change. As a result, novel forms of drought are emerging globally, challenging our ability to anticipate and manage drought impacts.” Unfamiliar Territory 21st Century Ecological Drought Resilience Continued on page 44  So-called Novel Droughts add another perspective to diverse drivers of water deficits. Courtesy Shlley Crausbay, Conservation Science Partners “Y