By Larry Stalcup, Contributing Editor

It’s the talk at the dinner table. Meat and other foods cost too much. Inflation, a poor economy and other factors have forced many families to tighten their belts. But that’s not the case for retail beef purchases, which have held their own thanks to strong consumer demand.

According to data from The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) Market Research and Scientific Affairs divisions, retail beef sales are up, while restaurant beef and other food sales are somewhat stagnant. “Consumption and demand for beef remain robust, as indicated by consumer-reported consumption and strong retail sales data,” says Mandy Carr Johnson, NCBA senior executive director of scientific affairs.

“Year-to-date retail beef prices through Sept. 7, 2024, averaged $6.63 per pound, up 6.5 percent vs. a year ago,” she says. “The total value of fresh beef sales year-to-date is up 7.1 percent at retail, while total pounds sold is seeing a modest gain of 0.6 percent. That’s an indication that beef demand is holding incredibly strong.”

The increased demand is more than was expected in early 2024, when NCBA’s review of beef industry consumer insights indicated that higher prices could impede demand. The expected reductions were based on projected declines in beef supply due to higher cattle prices, drought-induced liquidation and overall contraction of the cattle herd.

However, the continued consumer demand for tasty, nutritious beef caused a shift in domestic beef sale projections. “Trends have reversed since the February 2024 data were released,” says Mike Simone, NCBA market research executive director.

“Demand is actually very strong, with improvements in total pounds sold since that time. Total dollar sales have increased at an even faster rate. Additionally, beef maintains 55 percent of the total value of fresh protein sales, which has been growing in 2024 as well.”

Burgers and Steaks

Consumers especially prefer ground beef and steak. “Ground beef value has risen by 8.5 percent, while pounds sold is up 2.1 percent,” Simone tells CALF News. “Steak value has increased by 6.5 percent while pounds sold are mostly even with last year.

“Fresh ground beef makes up 52 percent of beef sales in volume at the retail meat case and about 40 percent of dollar sales. Steaks account for 36 percent of dollar sales but one-quarter of volume.”
He says the strength in ground beef and steaks offsets declines in other cuts. For example, roasts were down 4.5 percent in pounds in retail sales through the September timetable. Brisket retails sales were down 8.1 percent in pounds, and value-added products were down 8.6 percent.

Through Sept. 7, all fresh meat sales topped $44 billion – with more than $24.4 billion of that from beef, up from $22.7 billion in September 2023 (see Table 1). There were $11.8 billion from chicken sales and $5.5 billion from pork. NCBA data says meat alternatives continue to see double-digit declines in both value and volume.

“A large majority of consumers, 72 percent, eat beef at least once per week,” Johnson adds, while 84 percent eat chicken, 46 percent eat pork and 42 percent eat fish (see Table 2).

 

Leaning on Leftovers

While consumers still fork over more of their food budget for beef, they’re looking for more bargains, NCBA data says. “About 37 percent of consumers say they will be looking for deals and use coupons more often, and 36 percent say they will be dining out less,” Simone says, noting, “restaurants and food service establishments are really struggling right now.

“About 27 percent of consumers are stocking up and freezing beef items more often. Also, 28 percent of consumers are finding more ways to use leftovers, which caters to beef’s value and versatility driver component, as well as our focus on recipe development at the BeefItsWhatsForDinner.com website.”

Consumers are also using more store or private-brand labels, and more are shopping at mass-merchandiser stores in search of better prices and more quantity. Even though sales of roasts and other cuts may be down slightly, Simone says households are searching for new recipes, and buying different beef cuts to prepare at home.

University beef cattle economists also focus on consumers and their demand for beef. With many beef cuts easily topping $10 per pound or more, Elliot Dennis, University of Nebraska Extension economist, believes consumers may still decide they’ve had enough with higher beef prices.

“Consumers are exceptionally resilient. We have to have a lot of appreciation for that,” he notes in a late summer UNL Market Journal report. “If we think about how much beef costs them, it’s almost $10 in all fresh meats index. That’s extremely expensive, when we think about high prices for almost three years. Debt is rising. Delinquency rates are up. Can we continue to support those higher prices?”

Johnson says Beef Checkoff programs focus on research and promotions to consumers and the supply chain, as well as consumer information to improve consumer demand for beef. “BeefItsWhatsForDinner.com” provides recipes, chef inspirations and other resources to inspire consumers to choose a variety of beef cuts for any meal occasion.

“Additionally, channel marketing programs promote beef with retail and food service, and leverage less-known cuts of beef to provide additional value to channel partners and consumers.”

Continued Tight Supplies

Although there are still fewer cattle in the pipeline available for domestic supply, the current increase in beef availability can be attributed to several things, Johnson says. “They include an increase in beef imports, heavier cattle weights and yields, cattle staying on feed longer domestically and an increase in beef-dairy crosses in the mix,” she says.

“Projections for 2025 retail beef sales are also stronger than previously projected. However, it will still be the softest growth since 2016 and below what we are experiencing now with a slow rebuilding of the herd.”

Cattle imports are expected to be down in 2025. And the threatened dockworkers strike might have further delayed beef imports. Hopefully, the strike will be averted before shipments are stalled and supplies are strained even more.

Nonetheless, with the strong consumer demand for retail beef, there’s hope grocery shoppers will continue their trips to the meat counter – $15 to $25 per pound ribeyes or not.