By Walt Barnhart   Contributing Editor

Five years ago, the meat industry was challenged by companies wanting to capture a segment of the traditional meat market. Impossible Foods, Beyond Meat and others burst on the scene, and large marketers like Burger King, Qdoba and Carl’s Jr. hopped on the bandwagon, convinced there were many consumers who would switch or, if already meat-adverse, be willing to try the new items.
In some ways the last five years have been a wake-up call. Beyond Meat laid off 19 percent of its workforce late last year; earlier in 2023, Impossible Foods laid off 20 percent of its staff. Beyond Meat’s stock sold as high as $234.90 a share on July 26, 2019. On April 26, 2024, it sold for $6.40 a share.

“I don’t think there was ever anything the meat industry should have been concerned about…People will continue to eat meat.” – Rodrigo Tarté, PhD

Rodrigo Tarté, PhD, an associate professor at Iowa State University who specializes in meat processing and value-added meats, says some of what has taken place may have been pandemic-related, but the battle between meat and its challengers might also have been overhyped. “I don’t think there was ever anything the meat industry should have been concerned about,” he says. “People will continue to eat meat.”

According to Tarté the companies were always craving a pretty small segment of the consumer meat market. “And they may have reached their peak,” he says.

Glynn Tonsor, PhD, professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University (KSU), points out that the Meat Demand Monitor, conducted at KSU for the Beef and Pork Checkoffs, shows market share for plant-based patties (PbP) has not gone up. In March 2024 at intermediate prices, PbP held a 2 percent share and 4 percent share of the protein (meat, shrimp, beans-rice and plant-based patties) category in retail and food service, respectively. In March 2020 those shares were 3 percent and 5 percent.

The Monitor also shows there has not been growth in vegan/vegetarian diets during that time, Tonsor says.

Not New

Alternatives to meat have been around for decades, Tarté says, and believes the basic technological underpinnings of how they’re formulated have not changed much. The difference with the new players has been messaging. Impossible Foods and Beyond Meat loudly touted their supposed advantages to meat in areas like health, animal welfare and the environment. But most consumers don’t appear to be buying what the new companies are selling.

Gallup research found that 40 percent of consumers have tried plant-based meat alternatives. But the novelty of the product may have worn off, Tarté says. Taste and flavor are still the determining factors in food product success, he says. According to the research firm Mintel, 20 percent of consumers think plant-based meats are tasty, whereas 61 percent think that animal-based meats are tasty.

In addition, “You’ve got to be able to deliver” on quality, Tarté says. “And the products aren’t exactly like meat.”

There’s also the question of how consumers view health attributes. A study by the Food Marketing Institute found that three years ago 50 percent of consumers thought plant-based meat alternatives were healthy. That number dropped to 38 percent in 2023.

Vegetarians will eat alternative products no matter what, he says. Flexitarians, however, need additional motivation to switch from meat. “It’s not just the product, but what the product represents to the consumer,” says Tarté. “How strong is their ethical message?”

Alternatives won’t be nutritionally equivalent to meat and that makes the challenge more pronounced. Add that to the expanding ingredient list (which consumers don’t like), the extra technology needed to bring them to market, and struggles to control costs and new companies still have their work cut out for them.

The meat industry will need to keep its eye on the ball, with price volatility, consumer attitudes and other factors continuing to impact demand. But Tarté is optimistic. “Meat is meat; only animals produce it,” he says. “There are no technological advances that will change that fact.”

Walt Barnhart is retired from a career in the livestock and meat industry. He lives in Littleton, Colo.

A Closer Look

A January 2021 report for the Cattlemen’s Beef Board by Glynn Tonsor and colleagues Jayson Lusk (Purdue University) and Ted Schroeder (Kansas State University) provides a more comprehensive, in-depth look at this topic. Impacts of New Plant-Based Protein Alternatives on U.S. Beef Demand is available at https://www.agmanager.info/livestock-meat/meat-demand/meat-demand-research-studies.