By Will Verboven Contributing Editor
In the good old days, making annual prognostications and hopeful aspirations for the cattle business was relatively straightforward. I take a broad perspective on such marketing presumptions – contrary and, with all due respect, to the highly competent market analysts who engage in the technical minutiae of cattle marketing projections. In my view, the big factors that influence market trends tend to be the same most years – namely, marketing cycles and weather calamities around the globe. One then notes any commodity shortages and surpluses, and the coming year is usually somewhat predictable. Sure, global politics cause marketing havoc, much to the detriment of ag producers in Canada and the United States. Alas, those marketing and trade politics seem to occur much too often and have become a continuing menace to the North American cattle and beef industries.
I suspect there isn’t a cattle/beef market analyst in North America who could have foreseen the ever-increasing prices for cattle and beef during 2025. The underlying concern with such high prices is always the price pain that consumers are willing to endure. As it turns out, they are willing to suffer that pain and seem keen to pay higher beef prices. Many observers note that high cattle prices will persist until the key underlying factor is addressed: the North American cow herd must grow if consumer prices are to moderate. That doesn’t seem to be happening as it has in the past, and in my view, producers should be cautious in going down that road again.
I firmly believe that cow-calf producers are finally getting the prices they deserve and that keeping the market short of cattle is the only way to maintain those prices. For the last 60 years, consumers spent around 10 percent of their income on food, the lowest anywhere in the world, and producers only survived through consolidation and operating efficiencies. It’s time consumers paid for the real cost of food and that producers receive the high returns they so richly deserve.
In a high-priced cattle market, Canadian feedlot operators must be at wits’ end trying to make a buck, but they are highly sophisticated operators, most using every hedging opportunity to cover the millions they are risking. Besides, with a bonanza of barley and inexpensive American corn on the market, they have some marketing room to play with.
What is worrisome is the losses the big meat processors are taking. Sure, they are used to taking massive losses followed by huge profits, but it must be ominous for their breakeven throughput level, given that finished cattle supplies are in decline. The recent closure of a large Tyson beef plant in Nebraska shows that the big dogs are quite willing to shut down operations to reduce big losses.
It’s time consumers paid for the real cost of food and that producers receive the high returns they so richly deserve.
There is a message in that for the Alberta beef industry and its two big beef plants – they could be vulnerable in 2026. The closure of either would be a major blow to the western Canadian industry. That would lead to a significant increase in live cattle exports to the United States, which may not be welcome in your country, given today’s political climate. Add to that the upcoming review of the U.S./Canada/Mexico free trade agreement, and one can see how apprehension and anxiety have permeated cattle industry musings, and not just in Canada.
One does wonder: Was there ever a day when our only concern was to stop the decline in beef consumption and get consumers to just eat more beef and less chicken? Instead, for decades, countless millions of dollars have been spent by national producer groups on politically motivated trade and marketing issues in both our countries. Millions have been spent trying to overcome meat import trade mischief, quotas and bogus food safety barriers in Europe and Asia that were nothing more than protectionist nonsense. After my beef dining experiences in Europe last May (as reported in CALF News), consumers desperately need and want our high-quality, grain-fed beef. That issue truly needs President Trump to lay down the deal. But I digress.
On another note, 2026 should see a restructuring and revitalization of the Canadian Cattle Association (CCA), the national producer group up here in the cold white north. The CCA is similar to the American National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and has been in place for more than 90 years, serving the interests of Canadian cattle producers rather well over all those years. But like all mature organizations, they can become resistant to change and take some of their support for granted. That saw the Alberta Beef Producers (ABP), the largest contributor to the CCA, give notice that they would withdraw from the national group unless significant changes were made to accountability, financial oversight and representation. That move by the ABP seemed to shock other CCA members into action, as meetings have been held to find ways to update the CCA to modern standards of accountability and transparency for a modern-day national organization. The renewal process is off to a good start with the appointment of Andrea Brocklebank as the new CCA CEO.
